The Guns of October’: Report Forecasts Gulf War By Late 2012

WASHINGTON — The United States could become involved in a major war in the Gulf in 2012, a report said.

The Lexington Institute said Washington and other NATO states could be swept into a war with Iran over the next few months. The Washington-based institute said the military buildup throughout the Gulf lacked only a trigger for the eruption of fighting.

Iran in July test-fired a ballistic missile capable of striking Israel as part of war games designed to show its ability to retaliate if attacked.

“Teheran is expanding, dispersing and hardening its nuclear enrichment program and trying to find a way around sanctions before its domestic economy is crippled,” the report, titled “The Guns of October — in the Persian Gulf,” said.

Dated Aug. 24, the report cited the eve of World War I in 1914 when the European powers undertook a massive military buildup. Lexington said Iran, determined to advance its nuclear program, and much of the Gulf, fueled by the high price of energy, were conducting similar activities in preparation of war.

“For many of the parties to this crisis, the future looks decidedly
bleak, increasing the incentive to choose a course of action which while not necessarily a good option, is better than doing nothing,” the report said.

“Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have undertaken major military
modernization programs involving, among other things, advanced fighters and theater missile defenses. For virtually all sides, a war now may be a better option than any in the future.”

Another factor was Israel, which has warned that it would not tolerate
Iranian nuclear weapons. The report said Israel was also facing increasing uncertainty over the situation of Islamist Egypt and the Sunni revolt in Syria.

“Israel is deploying additional missile defense units, conducting
long-range air operations drills and preparing its population for possible war,” the report said.
At the same time, the United States has been expanding its military
presence in the Gulf. The report cited an increase in U.S. Navy aircraft
carriers, minesweepers and the establishment of a floating base.

“There are very real political, strategic, operational and economic
reasons to consider the possibility that as in 1914, the guns of war may
sound later this year,” the report said. [ Full Story from here.]